Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrejs Bessonovs
Author-X-Name-First: Andrejs
Author-X-Name-Last: Bessonovs
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Latvia
Author-Name: Olegs Krasnopjorovs
Author-X-Name-First: Olegs
Author-X-Name-Last: Krasnopjorovs
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Latvia
Title: Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia
Abstract: This paper develops a Short-Term Inflation Projections (STIP) model, which captures cointegrated relationships between highly disaggregated consumer prices and their determinants. We document a significant pass-through of domestic labour costs, crude oil and global food commodity prices to consumer prices in Latvia. We also assess the model's forecast accuracy of Latvia's inflation during 2014–2018 and find that the STIP model statistically significantly outperforms a na?ve benchmark model in real time.
Creation-Date: 2020-01-29
File-URL: https://datnes.latvijasbanka.lv/papers/wp_1_2020_en.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 2020/01
Classification-JEL: C32, C51, C52, C53, E31
Keywords: inflation forecasting, autoregressive distributed lag model, pass-through, oil prices, food commodity prices, labour costs
Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202001